A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
